Geopolitics of Crisis in Central Asia and The Caucasus (No. 0)

Abstract

According to many analysts, the last two decades of the 20th Century were an era during which significant geopolitical developments and related crises took place. The origin of these developments is undoubtedly the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War period. However, the consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union have become more important than the mere fall of Soviet empire.

Since the end of the bipolar system, there have been serious disagreements over the nature of the new geopolitical order. Some experts such as Keohane believe that the new system is multi-polar, while others like Fukuyama say that with the hegemony of liberal democracy, the era of ideological rivalries and consequently geo-strategic competition has finished.

Although the Cold War has ended, realist theoreticians believe that competition among great powers is still the main issue at the international level. Perhaps the only and most important difference between the new situation and the past is that this competition has become more purposeful and deliberate in terms of both themes and geographical considerations. For this reason, they argue, competition in one field will not necessarily lead to competition in all thematic and geographical fields, as was the case during the Cold War period.

The geographical scope of Central Asia and the Caucasus after the collapse of the Soviet Union has retained the elements of competition and bargaining between the United States and Russia. Although the end of the Cold War halted geo-strategic rivalries between the United States and the Soviet Union in many places of the world, it seems that these rivalries and the crises that result from them will continue in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The most important reason for this trend is that after losing Eastern Europe and other geo-strategic areas, the Russians insist upon maintaining Central Asia and the Caucasus as their only zone of influence.

On the other hand, many contemporary strategists believe that Eurasia, which encompasses countries located in Central Asia and the Caucasus, is of great importance in the geo-strategy of the new century, for example because of the region’s dominance over important world oil resources in the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf and also because of its control over communication lines between the East and West. In the past, Soviet dominance over some of these regions had left almost no room for the United States to expand its influence. However, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the resulting power vacuum, geopolitical competition and crises became more severe. During this period, because of the special conditions governing these regions, several internal and external political forces found an opportunity to play an effective role. Numerous crises also reemerged, some of which, like those in Chechnya and Karabakh, date back to much earlier times. In many cases, crises in Central Asia and the Caucasus intensified both the competition and direct and indirect involvement of regional and extra-regional powers in this geographical field. The “Colored Revolutions” that occurred in the three former Soviet republics are the best examples of this.

According to international relations’ literature, a systemic definition of “crisis” denotes a situation in which the traditional balance of a system undergoes radical changes because of the introduction of new elements. The more the foundations of the old system are threatened by these new elements, the more severe the crisis. According to this definition, a system contains a hierarchy of auxiliary- and micro- systems. For this reason, a crisis in a ruling system can lead to a crisis in the regional or even international system. In this sense, if a crisis affects the regional and international systems, it will become directly related to geopolitics. Geopolitics are affected by crises and also influence the type and degree of crisis. Crises occurring in regions that are less important in geopolitical terms rarely take on a regional or international dimension, while minor crises in geo-strategic regions tend to escalate rapidly.

The present book tries to study the factors contributing to the occurrence of crises and disputes in Central Asia and the Caucuses. It will also examine the approaches and actions of various players in these crises, while focusing on the political geography of crises in the region. Finally, it provides some suggestions based on the analysis of the current situation in this area.

In the first chapter, the theoretical foundations of issues such as geopolitics, geo-strategy, geo-economy and geo-culture are discussed. Then the developments of the Cold War period and other events that occurred in later periods in the geo-strategic scene are analyzed, with a focus on the views expressed by theoreticians such as Berzezinsky, Huntington and Keohane. The main goal of the first chapter, as emphasized repeatedly in the text, is to study the geo-strategic and geopolitical importance of Eurasia in the macro–policies of the great powers. In this chapter, the geopolitical consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union for Central Asia and the Caucasus and the impact of this event on these two important and strategic regions are also discussed.

The second chapter first describes the geopolitical situation of Central Asia and the Caucuses. It then goes on to examine the internal, regional and international factors contributing to the emergence of crises in this region.

The third chapter, which focuses especially on ethnicism, first explains ethnic crises from a theoretical point of view. It then describes the policies pursued by Soviet leaders toward ethnic groups during different periods and the threats resulting from the problems related to ethnic heterogeneity. Also in this chapter, a series of domestic factors that facilitate the interference of external powers is discussed.

Chapters four to seven examine the foundations, formation and causes of the emergence of three major crises in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The main point in each of these chapters is that the historical backgrounds of these crises, combined with domestic factors and the geopolitical and geo-strategic goals of some foreign actors, has intensified instability and crises in these regions.

In the eighth chapter, the geopolitical and geo-strategic goals of regional and extra- regional powers, especially Russia, the United States, Iran, China and Turkey are emphasized.

The last two chapters address the subject of the Colored Revolutions as well as the behavioral model of the United States and Russia in the process of these developments. The Colored Revolutions, which began with the Velvet Revolution in Georgia and led to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and finally to the Yellow Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, represented a new model of competition between the United States and Russia in the former Soviet republics, which was totally different from the previous Cold War model.

The new situation that was created a decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union at the world level forced the United States and Russia to pursue new paths to influence regional trends. The U.S. support of the Colored Revolutions and Russia's reaction to them compared to previous crises denoted a change in the geo-strategic approaches of these two powers.

In general, this book tries to analyze the developments and crises in Central Asia and the Caucasus, by taking into account the considerations of time and place and by relying upon a realistic approach. Although these crises subside, it is very important to examine them in order to identify the models of emerging and intensifying crises in this geo-strategic region.

It is worth mentioning that this book is the first part of a more extensive effort to study crises as well as crisis management (especially the intermediary efforts of the Islamic Republic of Iran) in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

I hope that the content of this book, which emphasizes the root causes of crises in the region, studies the role of actors in the area, and offers various suggestions, allows researchers to obtain a part of the information necessary for them to understand the problems of the region and to help the author to compensate for the shortages of this text.