The Recent G8 Summit: Consequences for Iran

In the 33rd G8 summit on 6-8 June 2007 in Heiligendamm, leaders of the world's major powers discussed and agreed on some of the world most significant and controversial issues such as Iran's nuclear program and US plans to deploy parts of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Other issues in the Summit included world's economic and international challenges, climate change and earth increasing temperature, Africa and growing diseases such as HIV and malaria, the Middle East issues, nuclear nonproliferation and Kosovo's future. On Kosovo, the G8 summit couldn't reach any agreement to resolve this issue or to determine a timeline for voting in the Security Council, since Russia opposed to any plan that gave Kosovo effective independence from Serbia.

However, the G8 Summit succeeded to reach agreement on decreasing greenhouse gases. In the final declaration of the G8, 60 billion dollars devoted to fight against AIDS and other diseases in Africa. But no precise date was set for allocating this budget. About Iran's nuclear program, the leaders of G8 expressed their profound concerns over continuing Iran's nuclear program and requested Iran to comply with its international obligations and UNSCR resolutions particularly its obligation to suspend all enrichment related activities. They also called on Iran to play a more responsible and constructive role in the Middle East region. Leaders of the G8 in their interviews held in the parallel of the Summit repeated their concern for the continuation of Iran's nuclear crisis.

Other controversial issue in the recent G8 summit was the US plan to install ballistic missile defense systems in Europe. During the Summit Russia's president mentioned if the US deploys this anti-ballistic system named "Stars War" in Eastern European countries, Russian nuclear missiles will target Europe.

Since the end of the Cold War, Russia and US have attempted to renewing their strategic relations based on not to threaten each other. But US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) caused tensions in Russia-US relations. Russia says that new US plan to install missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic revives of "Stars War" plan and strongly opposes it. Therefore, to counter this plan, Russia test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile called RS-24 on 29 May. Russian experts noted RS-24 could overcome any potential entire missile defense systems developed by foreign countries. It seems that Russia still pursuits the Soviet Union's interest and strategy, but it doesn't desire to confront the US and the West as a whole. Indeed, Russia wants to keep its position and to deal with the West through political and strategic bargaining. Even Russia's behavior towards Iran is evaluated based on these elements. On the other hand, Russia considers Eastern Europe as of its sphere of influence to the extent that Russian officials are ready to sacrifice the country's interests and relations with southern neighbors for improving its strategy in Europe. Zbigniew Brzezinski believes that Kremlin strategists are content with the thought of seeing the US deeply bogged down not only in Iraq but also in a war with Iran, which would trigger a dramatic surge in the price of oil, a commodity in plentiful supply in Russia.

However, Putin implicitly suggested strategic negotiations between US and Russia and possible Russia participation in missile shield plan in a reconciliatory gesture. During the G8 Summit, he suggested sharing a radar system in Azerbaijan called "Gabala" to develop a shield covering all of Europe. "We have a mutual understanding of common threats, but we also have differences over how we can counter and prevent these threats", he said. On the other hand, Azerbaijani officials welcomed this suggestion and stated it could promote regional security. Yet, some Azerbaijani experts discussed this suggestion maybe a bluff by Russia, because Gabala radar station is an important component of Russia’s anti-missile shield and it doesn't seem Russia wants to share it with the US. These experts emphasize that if Russia and the US want to use Gabala radar station against the threat of Iranian missiles, they must guarantee Azerbaijan's security. Russia's suggestion for sharing Gabala in the framework of US missile shield plan against Iran has, provoked sharp reaction of Iranian parliament.

The recent G8 Summit and Putin's harsh reaction to the US missile shield plan demonstrate that the US and Russia have taken a controversial step in their relations since the Soviet collapse. Some experts call this new step as a "new Cold War", the first indications of which were seen during the 43rd of Munich Conference on Security Policy. In the recent Summit, Russian president threatened to target European countries as though Russia's new approach is against the US and other western countries. Here, one should make some important remarks:

§ Russia has been the major winner of increasing oil prices in international markets after 9/11. This issue has bolstered Russia's position situation as a great exporter of energy in the world. Due to this advantage, Russia attempts to respond the US new security challenges.

§ Russian presidential elections will be held in March 2008. Therefore, Russia tries to show its power to providing necessary stability for the next president.

§ Putin's suggestion for common use of Gabala radar station targets Iran directly and emphases that the US position and other western countries towards Iran and the installation of missile shield against it as a threat for international security are justified.

§ This suggestion also displays increasing Russian concerns about the probability of normalizing relations between Iran and the US, because if realized this issue will have many repercussions on Russia's strategic environment.

§ It is necessary that Iran properly react to Putin's suggestion and issue warning to some regional countries, especially the Republic of Azerbaijan against their cooperation in every hostile plan targeting Iran.